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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still