A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
